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Article: Brexit & new policies of President Trump: what happens next?

27 November 2017 | Michael Wellenbeck

In our complex, interlinked world with increasing political uncertainty, prediction models are required to answer the question “What happens next” and to allow for the definition of suitable strategies.


In the last 15 months we have seen two political “Black Swan” events that have neither been correctly predicted by politicians, strategists, economists, media, pollsters (etc.) regarding their likelihood and their real implications: Brexit and the election of President Donald Trump.

Significant change in policy leads to significant changes for business in general but especially for the globally interlinked financial services industry and its backbone the (systemically important) market infrastructure.

On background of the current Brexit timeline there are some important decision check-points coming up for the financial services industry and market infrastructure in Europe:

  1. Until end of 2017: Decision to move legal entities and /or regulatory required functions from the UK to either the EU27 to maintain passporting rights or Third Countries with an equivalence regime such as the US. This is required

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