Competition | June 10th Mandatory Clearing Prediction
The Dodd-Frank Act has a mandatory clearing deadline of June 10th for Category 2 entities (hedge funds, non-swap dealer banks)
We are asking the following question:
What do you predict will be the gross notional remaining of Uncleared USD IR Swaps FixedFloat in the week of 10th – 14th June 2013, as reported to the USD Swaps Data Repository (DDR)?
To help with your prediction, I can tell you the following.
- From 1st May and 20th May, the average daily gross notional of Uncleared USD IR Swaps Fixed Float was $9.6 billion.
- So using this for an average week, we would get a weekly figure of $48 billion.
- However for the week starting 13th May the goss notional was $57 billion.
- If you expect no move from Uncleared Swaps to Cleared, you could pick a number between $48 – $57 billion.
- If you expect an increase in Cleared and a decrease in Uncleared, you might predict a lower figure of say $25 billion.
- However you may want to do some more research on weekly volumes for earlier periods and specifically what happened to Uncleared Swap volumes in the weeks before and after the March 11 deadline for Category 1 entities.
Do your research here using our SDR View tool
You will need to login with your LinkedIn account and then in the History tab you will be able to change start and end dates, the period to Weekly and the status to Uncleared. Check you get the $57 billion figure for the week starting 13th May and then look at any other periods to inform your analysis and arrive at a prediction.
Example guess: USD 25 billion.
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- To enter the competition you must work in the Financial Services sector at any type of firm (sell-side, buy-side, service provider, consultancy, software vendor, law firm, media firm, regulator), as evidenced by you using your professional email address. Applications from generic email addresses may not be accepted unless you provide further evidence of your professional affiliation, LinkedIn profile or full time study into the capital markets. In this case, please add notes into your prediction above.
- The competition will close on Monday 3rd June at 11pm London time.
- We will publish a summary of the predictions we have received a few days after this and give a consensus prediction.
- Then on June 17th, we will publish the actual figure and the winner will be the person closest to this in absolute terms.
- In the event of a tie, the person submitting the earlier email to us will be judged the winner.
- In the event of multiple entries by the same person, the latest entry will be the only one entered into the competition.
- A winner will definitely be declared, unless prior to 3rd June 11pm London, there is a postponement (unlikely) of the deadline by regulators, in which case the entries to date wil be judged in the week following the new deadline.
- A small number of entries: A Nexus 7, 16Gb Tablet
- A medium number of entries: A Kindle Fire HD 32Gb Tablet
- A large number of entries: An Apple iPad mini 32Gb
- Too many entries: A lifetime’s supply of Tablet: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tablet_(confectionery)
To boost the number of entries and therefore the prize, send this page to your colleagues, the more the merrier.
Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future. Niels Bohr
(Click to enlarge), and do your research here using the SDR View tool
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